Last year, in mid-August 2020, Myanmar held its fourth Union Peace Conference in its capital Naypyidaw, north of Yangon.
The Conference, also called the 21st Century Panglong, sought to bring together government representatives and ethnic armed groups to resolve disputes that derailed the nationwide peace process in 2019.
But instead of talking about peace, instead of fostering an air of mutual respect and understanding, a war of words took hold of the event. On one side was military chief Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, who accused ethnic groups of being against preceding governments, and the stakeholders of the peace process for not being honest.
On the other side was democracy leader and icon Aung San Suu Kyi, standing State Counselor. She turned the tables on the armed forces, saying that the “bad political culture” of stakeholders relying on military strength for political gain needs to be eliminated.
Observers, including ethnic leaders who were in attendance, said that it was a battle between Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the military elites.
An academic, who was also present at the peace conference but has asked to withhold their identity, made a bold prediction: this friction between the country’s two most powerful figures would eventually cause Myanmar’s powder keg politics to explode into conflict, taking many lives and undoing years of peacebuilding.
Half a year later, in the dead of the night and seemingly without ceremony, the prophecy would see itself fulfilled.
Aung San Suu Kyi has wielded immense political power in Myanmar and has bumped heads with military elites, particularly Min Aung Hlaing. Years of bitter political rivalry would eventually come to a head on February 1, 2021, with the military staging a coup and taking into custody several NLD leaders.
A bitter rivalry
Things have always been tense between Myanmar’s two most powerful people.
Political insiders – journalists and Members of Parliament (MPs) in Naypyidaw – say that Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing have been testing the waters of power sharing for years, but the mutual animosity was too strong. Both of them were too stubborn, too ambitious, too proud to work with each other.
Their relationship was so bad that according to a veteran Naypyidaw politician, the two wouldn’t even meet, but would instead send representatives to talk it out on their behalf.
The source requested anonymity for safety reasons.
While in power, Aung San Suu Kyi initially held four ministerial positions in the government: minister of energy, minister of education, foreign minister, and minister in the President’s office. She eventually gave up the first two, but nevertheless still held incredible political sway.
At one point she was chairperson of both the National Peace and Reconciliation Center (NRPC) and the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC). On top of all of this, she was also named as the State Counselor, which gave her as much stature as the Prime Minister.
Even some NLD members thought this was excessive. Some criticized her for seemingly going solo and for holding too many high-ranking government posts.
The creation of the State Counsellor position was particularly contentious. It rankled the military so much that a legislative member denounced the post as unconstitutional and refused to take part in the vote for its creation. In April 16, he parliament ultimately voted the position through.
Brigadier General Maung Maung, a military representative at that time, denounced the outcome as “bullying.” U Ko Ni, legal advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi, was widely known to be the brain behind the creation of the State Counsellor position. He was gunned down in 2017 at Yangon International Airport, an operation that many believe the military was behind.
The tug-of-war over power had already devolved into violence and bloodshed at least once. It shouldn’t have been a stretch to think that it could happen again.
On February 1, 2021, the international community, along with the Burmese themselves, were caught off-guard when the armed forces announced a coup on Myawaddy TV, the military-owned broadcast channel.
But in the days leading up to the coup, sources say that many people already knew what was about to happen.
Sources from MPs, the diplomat community, and the media said that representatives from both the military and the NLD met to negotiate demands from the Tatmadaw (the official name of Myanmar’s armed forces) on January 28.
In particular, the military was raising questions about the recent elections, which took place last November 2020, where the NLD dominated. According to them, there were too many irregularities for the Tatmadaw to ignore. They wanted a recount of votes and to hold another election, according to sources in Naypyidaw.
Parliament was supposed to resume on February 1, the day the coup happened. The military also wanted it suspended, said the source.
The NLD wouldn’t give in, and the talks fell apart. At that point, the coup had already been decided, according to journalists. When Myawaddy TV aired the announcement on February 1, the coup was well past its climax. In the early hours of the same day, it turned out that the military had taken under custody high-profile politicians and community leader, Aung San Suu Kyi among them.
Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD were also aware that the coup was on the horizon. Burmese media outlet The Irrawaddy reported that she held a series of meetings with her party members at her residence on January 28, where they discussed objections to the Tatmadaw’s demands—and what could happen if they rejected them.
A well-informed MP said that Aung San Suu Kyi even said that in the worst-case scenario, the power of the people will be key.
February 2021. Civilians storm the streets of Taunggyi, Myanmar, protesting the military coup and calling for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Power of the people
“We can’t lose again. This is the last fight. If we lose again, we will lose our freedom, our dream, and our future. We don’t want to live under military regime again,” said Ko Phyo, a protester in Yangon, adding that the civil disobedience movement (CDM) is the hope of the people of Myanmar.
“Many civilians from different layers who join the CDM don’t hope for political gain, but take part in the movement purely because they don’t want to live under the military regime again. They suffered and know what is like living under the junta,” Ko Phyo added.
In more than a month since the Tatmadaw laid siege to Myanmar’s young democracy, people have flooded the streets in protest, demanding their civil spaces back. In the Burmese people, it would seem that Min Aung Hlaing has found his match.
The Myanmar protests have captured hearts and headlines all over the world, prompting several heads of state and influential organizations to call on the junta to end the coup. In turn, Min Aung Hlaing, along with other top military officials, have fallen under intense scrutiny and criticism.
Unlike crackdowns on democracy movements in the past, the military is cautious in handling the CDM movement so far. But amid the mounting domestic and international pressure, Myanmar’s armed forces seem to be having trouble maintaining composure. In the past days, violence has mounted, leaving dozens of protesters dead and several hundred more injured.
This has only galvanized the movement and fanned the flames of international outrage. At this rate, with the protesters angrier, more determined to fight for their futures, it’s probably too late for a compromise between NLD’s Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta’s Min Aung Hlaing. It will have to be one or the other. Finally, the brutal rivalry will have to see its conclusion.
Min Aung Hlaing has no plans of losing. Before the waves civil unrest swell into a tidal wave of revolutionary action, the junta leader is laying down the groundwork for his political future.
He formed 11-member State Administration Council (SAC) which included some hand-picked representatives from other political parties and individuals with ethnic background. According to observers, this is his way of saying that his leadership and administration will be inclusive.
Mahn Nyein Maung, an experienced ethnic Karen politician, is a member of the SAC. He is a former executive member of the Karen National Union and ran under the Karen People Party in the last elections. Thet Thet Khaing, chairperson the People’s Pioneer Party, is also on the SAC and was named minister of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement.
The SAC also counts among its rank former members of the NLD who, unsatisfied with their party’s performance, had decided to leave.
The SAC also formed a seven-member advisory board that includes civilians, including Dr. Ngun Cung Lian, a US-educated, US citizen ethnic Chin who had also served as legal counsel for the now-dissolved Myanmar Peace Center.
On the day the coup was announced, the SAC said that Myanmar would be put under a state of emergency for a year, and at its end, there would be an election. The junta, they say, would be glad to hand over power to whoever wins in those polls.
But by that point, analysts and activists say it will have been too late. The table will be stacked so starkly in the Min Aung Hlaing’s favor that there would be no way for him to truly, genuinely lose. It’s likely that he will create a powerful position for himself – perhaps President – or assign it to someone he trusts.
He wants to make sure that he’s safe before he steps down as commander-in-chief, the analysts added. “Dictators will never step down unless they feel safe.” ●
Saw Yan Naing has written for Bangkok Post, The Irrawaddy, Asia Times Online, Aljazeera English, BBC Burmese, New Mandala, The Global Investigative Journalism Network, among other publications. He is currently a technical lead and media trainer at Internews in Myanmar.
