Taiwan’s endless ‘interesting times’

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nother new year is upon us all, but in Taiwan it’s been much of the same, which in some ways is not really a good thing. 

There is still a lot of sabre-rattling from the other side of the Strait, with Chinese President Xi Jinping starting 2025 by again insisting that “no one can stop the historical reunification” of China with Taiwan. 

In Taiwan itself, President Lai Ching-te talked about democratic countries becoming “even more united” in the New Year, while saying that “Taiwan hopes to have healthy and orderly exchanges with China under the principles of reciprocity and dignity.” 

If only Taiwan’s political parties would have the kind of exchanges Lai described. Instead, brawls have been known to break out among the lawmakers right inside the Legislative Yuan. Just last May, Taiwan’s parliament descended into chaos as fists flew, with at least one member of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) landing in hospital as a result.

Overall, Taiwan had a tumultuous 2024, even if the polls held last January led to Lai’s victory, which meant an unprecedented third term for the DPP. Lai is expected to largely maintain the policies of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, particularly those aimed at political distance from China, even if he is perceived as less socially progressive than Tsai.

The Chinese government was quick to register displeasure with the Taiwanese electorate for choosing Lai as a pro-sovereignty candidate. China stepped up its military activity against Taiwan, launching military drills days after Lai’s presidential inauguration in May, after Taiwan’s National Day in October, and most recently in December. 

Such military displays are intended to remind Taiwanese that the threat of force against Taiwan is still on the table should they make any moves toward formal independence. They are also aimed at intimidating the Taiwanese public into voting for the political actors that China prefers. And while the past three elections did not exactly yield Beijing’s desired results, the Kuomintang (KMT) did win a slight majority in the Taiwanese legislature in the 2024 polls. 

The KMT once ruled over Taiwan as the sole permitted party during the authoritarian period. It has since reinvented itself as the pro-China party in Taiwanese politics. Along with its ally, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the KMT has sought to use its narrow majority to force through substantial changes to the divisions of powers among Taiwan’s three major branches of government. 

This was what led to the outbreak of the Bluebird Movement in May, the largest set of protests since the 2014 Sunflower Movement. As with the Sunflower Movement, this new wave of protests has been drawing tens of thousands into the streets of Taipei. Yet the Bluebird Movement remains largely underreported outside of Taiwan, which in recent years has been viewed by the rest of the world within the narrow frame of geopolitics. 

Legislative quarrels

For sure, the Bluebird Movement does not directly touch upon cross-strait relations between Taiwan and China. But much of the root causes for the movement are linked to geopolitics in that the KMT is framed by protesters as acting on behalf of its perceived Beijing masters.

In fact, an alarm among the Taiwanese public was triggered by the KMT seeking new investigative powers that would allow legislators to summon individuals for questioning and impose heavy fines on those who did not comply, refused to answer, or were perceived as contemptuous of legislative interrogation. 

Such powers were later deemed unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court, but the KMT has since moved on to pass new legislation that would effectively freeze the Constitutional Court from making judgments, raise the barriers for recalls to protect its legislators from recall campaigns, and redirect funding away from the central government and toward local governments controlled by the KMT.

There have also been statements by KMT politicians declaring Taiwanese to be Chinese, or alleging that the Chinese government is justified in its claims over Taiwan. These in particular had many people incensed and taking to the streets in protest. 

KMT legislators such as Ma Wen-chun have been accused as well of leaking confidential government documents to China that pertain to national security, such as classified details of Taiwan’s domestic submarine program. 

Moreover, the KMT has seen fit to circumvent democratic institutions in its efforts to pass legislation aimed at reshaping the government in their image. The initial Bluebird Movement protest in May broke out after the KMT and DPP lawmakers engaged in fistfights in the legislature over KMT’s proposed laws, which resulted in DPP MP Puma Shen getting hospitalized with a concussion. 

More recent efforts by the KMT to pass laws had the party’s MPs physically blocking DPP legislators from voting in the legislature.    

In this way, the Bluebird Movement has been reminiscent of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, which had focused on similar issues, with youth activists demonstrating against the KMT’s efforts to ram a trade bill with China through the legislature. 

That bill would have allowed for Chinese investment in Taiwan’s service sector, which raised concerns about Chinese political influence on Taiwan, since the sector contributed around 65 percent of GDP. What many found especially infuriating, however, was that KMT rammed the trade bill through committee review in 30 seconds, without any substantive discussion. 

Many activists who took part in the Sunflower Movement now make up the core leadership of the Bluebird Movement – which is serving as the first experience of mass demonstrations for those too young to have experienced the Sunflower protests 10 years ago. 

Still, the Bluebird Movement has proven to be a very different protest compared to the Sunflower Movement, which took the form of a 23-day occupation of the Taiwanese legislature by student activists. This time around, rather than an all-consuming protest movement focused on maintaining an occupation encampment, the barrier for participation has been lowered, allowing individuals to participate in the movement even through all kinds of activities. 

This adaptation is likely because Taiwanese civil society does not wish to experience the explosive intensity many went through as part of the Sunflower Movement, which left many activists burned out for years. 

Continuing resistance

Bluebird Movement events and activities are not yet at the scale of the Sunflower Movement, with the largest mobilization to date having drawn 100,000. But Bluebird Movement mobilizations have continued from the early summer into the winter, routinely drawing thousands of demonstrators outside of the legislature.  

Yet what comes next for Taiwan remains unknown. China is expected to continue with military displays aimed at intimidating Taiwan, while the KMT will continue to advance legislation aimed at reshaping the government to its benefit. 

It will be three years before Taiwan will have its next legislative elections, which would then offer the possibility of ousting the KMT from its current slim majority. Between now and the next round of polls, this may mean more protests in Taiwan.  

There is also the impact of the recent U.S. presidential elections on Taiwan to consider.  It is unclear whether the return to power of Donald Trump will lead to geopolitical uncertainties for Taiwan, with Trump having lashed out at Taiwan as a freeloader on U.S. munificence and accused it of stealing the U.S. semiconductor industry on numerous occasions. Trump has alternated between hostility against Xi Jinping and apparent conciliatory attitudes, including inviting the Chinese leader to his presidential inauguration. 

Then again, Taiwan has seen tumultuous political shifts, not just in the last year, but in the past 10 years. And it has managed to catch some global attention, albeit not always in a good way. During the Sunflower Movement a decade ago, Taiwan was a relatively obscure topic. But in recent years, there has been increasing international focus on Taiwan, including Taiwan being called the “most dangerous place on Earth” in a much-maligned cover story for The Economist. 

But just as Taiwan continues to be caught between a rock and a hard place geopolitically, there will continue to be resistance to undemocratic changes. The Sunflower Movement led to a generation of activists who later ran for office or formed civil-society organizations that still exist to this day. 

Today’s Bluebird Movement shows that a new generation has become politically active. Even if much remains uncertain about 2025, including what moves the KMT will take next in the legislature, continued pushback against any direction opposite of freedom and democracy is certain. ◉

Brian Hioe is one of the founding editors of the Taipei-based New Bloom Magazine, and is also a freelance editor and translator.