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or those still wondering what the return of Donald J. Trump to the White House would mean for Asia, his first term offers many clues. From 2017 to January 2021, his administration brought significant and nuanced effects on democracy in a region thousands of kilometers away.
Trump 1.0’s “economy-first” policies sidelined and prioritized transactional relationships over human rights, allowing illiberal regimes like those in Thailand and Cambodia to consolidate power, reverse democratic reforms, and undermine institutions, with minimal fear of U.S. repercussions. His admiration for strongman leaders also sent a troubling signal to Asia: the United States, once a staunch promoter of democracy, was now willing to tolerate – or even support – authoritarian tendencies.
His withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017 further weakened regional confidence in U.S. commitment to security and democratic ideals. This strategic vacuum forced countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to reassess their reliance on U.S. support and prioritize “country-first” politics, often at the expense of democratic values.
But the way that the 2024 U.S. presidential elections turned out offers even more worrying clues. Despite his often erratic behavior, Trump’s direct and clear messaging helped him connect with voters who felt disconnected from the economic recovery achieved under the Biden administration. Trump’s approach offered an alternative to the status quo, even in foreign policy, where he promised to diverge from past approaches.
By then, unfortunately, the Biden administration’s failure to hold Israel accountable for war crimes and its apparent inability to translate its achievements into tangible benefits for the average U.S. voter had further deepened disillusionment with the Democrats’ rule.
Thus, unlike with his first victory, there was no shock when Trump emerged the winner last November – only a more profound sense of hurt and disappointment among those who felt left behind.
Trump’s campaign had been unapologetically direct, focusing on racist, misogynistic, and “America First” rhetoric. While the turnout was not as high as in the 2020 elections, the 2024 polls had Trump securing a significant percentage of votes over Vice President Kamala Harris across nearly all 50 states, including Washington, D.C.
Rural areas shifted more strongly toward Trump, and surprisingly, urban areas, especially in swing states, followed suit. This shift indicates a broader acceptance of his message and strategy among voters who were drawn to his vision of prioritizing U.S. interests and an assertive national identity.
This outcome prompted me – as a U.S. human rights and democracy advocate – to reflect on the democracy movement and the effectiveness of our strategies. As democracy advocates, we bear the responsibility of promoting democratic principles and convincing people that, though imperfect, democracy remains the best guarantor of human dignity and fundamental freedoms.
Yet, the increasing skepticism about democracy, particularly among young Americans, has made me question whether our efforts resonate as they should. Polls indicate that many in the United States are losing faith in democracy, a troubling trend mirrored globally.
Democracy to take a backseat?
The erosion of faith in democracy in the United States and the international ripple effects of Washington’s disengagement are inextricably linked. A weakened belief in democratic principles within the United States has reverberated across the globe, emboldening authoritarian regimes and challenging the stability of democratic institutions in Asia.
As Asian nations grapple with evolving global power dynamics and the rising influence of China, the strong probability of the disappearance of a strong U.S. leadership creates a perilous environment for democratic trajectories.
During Trump’s first presidency, Asia faced significant challenges due to regional authoritarian trends and a U.S. foreign policy that deprioritized democratic values. The strategic vacuum left by U.S. leadership allowed illiberal regimes to consolidate power and authoritarian models to gain regional influence.
China capitalized on this situation by increasing its influence and promoting its governance model in Asia and beyond. In December 2021, China released a democracy white paper titled “China: Democracy That Works,” which framed China’s model of governance as a “whole-process people’s democracy.” It argued that democracy should be judged by how well it serves the people, rather than adhering to Western liberal norms.
China’s economic prosperity and substantial investments through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have solidified the appeal of its arguments. BRI offers politically neutral “no strings attached” infrastructure development, quickly delivering large-scale projects to countries that question whether democracy can effectively meet their needs.
Its growing appeal suggests that more nations in the region may be tempted to explore alternatives to traditional democratic governance models, potentially undermining the stability and development of democratic institutions in Asia.
The United States had ensured its presence was more than felt in Asia under the Biden administration. But the return of Trump to the U.S. presidency will probably result in a very different scenario.
If Trump’s second term unfolds as projected, his administration will be straightforward in implementing economic and foreign policies that will prioritize the United States at the expense of democracy and human rights.
Early indications suggest that his priorities are already taking shape and bound to bring crucial changes in Asia:
Taiwan: U.S. relations with Taiwan will inevitably become more tense as Trump has been vocally firm on decreasing defense funds to the island, while repeatedly complaining that Taiwan “stole” America’s chip business. Compared to Biden, Trump is not a strong supporter of Taiwan. Some may point to his recent announcements of appointing China hawks to key foreign relations positions as suggesting otherwise.
But while these appointments may strengthen Taiwan’s strategic position by applying pressure on Beijing, they do not guarantee consistent U.S. support. Taiwan will likely have no choice but to fill the national security vacuum through increased domestic defense spending and bolstering regional alliances.
South Korea: South Korea will also face strained relations with the United States as Trump continues to demand the country shoulder more of its defense costs. Recognizing the increasing security threat of North Korea, Trump has expressed interest in reinstating diplomatic talks, likely sidelining South Korea in the process. With the unreliability of the U.S. security commitment, South Korea may consider nuclear ambitions to fill its security vacuum.
This would significantly revert efforts for a peaceful, denuclearized Northeast Asia. Economically, South Korean firms that relied on subsidies to invest in the United States may face retracted support, further straining the economy. Political uncertainty in South Korea, with the impeachment process of President Yoon Suk-yeol, raises concerns about further destabilization.
ASEAN: Southeast Asia, once balancing between China and the United States, has been left to lean toward China due to Trump’s deprioritization of the region. With growing military clout and appealing economic policies, countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia have become more welcoming of China. This shift emboldens illiberal leaders to compromise democracy and human rights in the name of national benefit – or in some cases, personal benefit masquerading as patriotic concerns.
South Asia: In South Asia, Trump’s disregard for democracy and human rights will embolden the Taliban in Afghanistan and pose challenges to countries like Bangladesh, which recently achieved a stunning regime change. Economically, Trump’s focus on deterring China’s influence, particularly in Pakistan, may benefit India. Other countries with less economic value to the U.S. may be left behind, however, forcing them to choose sides in the subregion’s ongoing contest between India and China.
Local strategies, regional solidarity
There are, however, emerging signs of proactive leadership and resilience across Asia, even as Trump’s second term seems poised to pose challenges to democracy in the region. In recent years, grassroots movements and civil society organizations have played a transformative role in promoting democratic values across Asia.
For example, the Aragalaya movement in Sri Lanka and the student-led protests in Bangladesh have shown that local actors can drive significant political change and hold governments accountable without relying on external actors like the U.S.
These movements demonstrate that democratic renewal in Asia can be led locally, highlighting the potential for regional actors—through grassroots mobilizations and civil society – to chart their own path toward accountability and reform.
Asian democracies, supported by these movements, could form networks of solidarity and share strategies to amplify local successes regionally and globally. Democratic nations like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan can and should establish an alliance that highlights Asia’s democratic narrative and promotes democratic values and institutions.
More support for democracy movements and a renewed emphasis on human rights must be prioritized. While the United States may continue to struggle with its own democratic shortcomings, it is essential for Asia to chart a course forward based on regional leadership and solidarity.
The key is not to adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, but to tailor strategies to regional needs and priorities, drawing from diverse experiences and lessons learned across Asia.
South Korea, for instance, may be in political turmoil at the moment, but its people have been rallying tirelessly to safeguard democracy, setting a powerful example of perseverance. Since transitioning to a full democracy in 1987, South Korea’s people and institutions have consistently defended democracy.
The integration of democracy in education and the arts, as well as a rich tradition of people’s mobilization in the country, have cultivated a profound cultural appreciation for fundamental freedoms, fostering a tradition of peaceful protests accessible to all.
Hope, in fact, remains across Asia despite the setbacks to democracy and the grim projections for Trump’s second term. That hope lies in the ardent democracy advocates, including the youth, who are at the frontlines of the current democracy movement across the region.
The question is not whether democracy delivers—it does—but whether its stewards can inspire a skeptical world to believe in its enduring promise. This begins by showing that democracy is not just a system of government, but a shared commitment to human dignity, fairness, and freedom. Together, we must prove that even in the darkest moments, democracy can adapt, endure, and prevail. ◉
