Boots behind the scenes

W

eeks after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to resign and flee her South Asian nation, Bangladeshis are still waking up each morning amazed that they are no longer under her thumb. 

In Dhaka, homemaker Dinara Rahman echoes many others in saying, “The country feels different now. It feels like we’re breathing in a free nation.”

Yet some analysts remain worried about what can happen next, or at least until an election is held. Among them are those casting a wary eye particularly on the country’s powerful army, taking into account Bangladesh’s long history of military coups and periods under military rule.

The interim government is currently under civilian leadership, although retired military officials are among its collection of advisors. So far the military is staying in the background, but there are those who believe that it is not really just waiting for orders from Bangladesh’s temporary leaders.

“No matter how much we talk about popular uprisings and movements, the military is covertly behind this government,” asserts Dhaka University sociology professor Dr. A. S. M. Amanullah. “The military intervened from the beginning. If they had not withdrawn their support from the Awami League government, it would still be in power. Since the military played a role in this change, they believe they have developed legitimacy and authority. Thus, they think their voice will continue to be heard in the new government.”

“It may not be like the Moeen-Fakhruddin government,” says Amanullah, “but there will be a covert shadow of the military over this government.”

In January 2007, just as the country was getting ready for elections, Bangladesh’s then army chief Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed staged a bloodless coup and forced then President Iajuddin Ahmed to declare a state of emergency. Iajuddin, who was then also chief advisor of the caretaker government (which in Bangladesh is usually formed before elections), was made to suspend the scheduled polls and resign as well.

Former Central Bank governor Fakhruddin Ahmed was then appointed to take his place. The Fakhruddin caretaker government ended up ruling Bangladesh until 2009, with many believing that it was the military actually calling the shots behind the scenes.

Fakhruddin had not been the military’s first choice as Iajuddin’s replacement. Moeen had asked economist Muhammad Yunus to head the caretaker government. But Yunus – who with Grameen Bank, the microlending institution he founded, had just won the Nobel Prize just months earlier –  declined the offer. 

Seventeen years later, Yunus is now leader of Bangladesh’s latest interim government, which as of this writing has 21 advisors. Two of these are two university students who had been among the leaders of the protest that toppled the Hasina government.

A ‘quiet coup’?

The daughter of independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and once a champion of democracy, Hasina had become more and more autocratic in the last 15 years that she had been in power.  Under her rule, Bangladesh became a one-party state where corruption was rife and the opposition, real and imagined, was suppressed viciously. 

While Bangladesh’s surprising economic growth was being lauded worldwide, key institutions in all the branches of government were becoming ineffective in serving the people’s needs. But it was not until Hasina’s government responded to the recent student-led protest movement with violence – resulting in at least 400 dead, including some children – did the military decide to withdraw support for her administration.

Hasina’s resignation was announced on Aug. 5 by Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman, her relative by marriage, and whom she had appointed to his high post just weeks prior.

According to a Reuters report, the prime minister had been told the night before that the army would be “unable to implement the curfew she had called for.”

Several hours later, as angry crowds gathered in front of her official residence, Hasina and her sister boarded a helicopter headed for India.

To geostrategist Brahma Chellaney of the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, what took place was “a quiet coup behind a civilian façade.”

In a recent opinion piece for the U.S. online publication The Hill, Chellaney wrote, “Driving Hasina into exile appears not to have been a spur-of-the-moment military decision, but rather central to a well-thought-out plan for an indirect army takeover of the country.”

 “By installing an interim civilian government made up of only ‘advisers,’” he argued, “the coup leaders have not only forestalled U.S.-led sanctions but also helped foster a romanticized Western media narrative of a student-led ‘revolution’ in the country.” 

The continuing lack of details regarding the duration and scope of powers of the interim administration, Chellaney said, only means that “its advisers work essentially at the direction of the military brass, especially the army chief, Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, the power behind the throne.” 

It’s an argument close to what Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, told the Agence France-Presse a few days after Hasina’s ouster. Said Kugelman: “The military leadership will have a major role in overseeing this interim setup, even if it’s not formally heading it.” 

“Many in Bangladesh will worry that if you have a long-term interim government, that gives the military more of an opportunity to gain a foothold,” Kugelman added. “Though I would argue that Bangladesh’s army today appears much less inclined to play an activist and central role in politics, compared to how it used to be several decades back.”

Jahangirnagar University government and politics professor Dr. K. M. Mahiuddin meanwhile believes that rather than exerting influence, the military’s role in the interim government will be more supportive.

“The interim government that has come into power after the student and public movements will likely see minimal military influence because a significant force, the students, support this government,” Mahiuddin tells Asia Democracy Chronicles (ADC). “Thus, the government’s major support comes from the students and the public, not the military. The previous caretaker government was based on military support.”

He adds, “The people of Bangladesh are now more interested in system change rather than just a change in government. They want a system that is accountable to the public and provides proper public services.”

Police under fire

Yet many of the students themselves recognize the crucial role played by the military in Hasina’s ouster. At the very least, Dhaka University student Ariful Islam says that even though “this popular uprising in Bangladesh could not have been stopped by Sheikh Hasina’s government,” the number of deaths would have been less had “the military withdrawn its support earlier.”

Still, Islam thinks that although there was initial resentment toward the military for working on behalf of the government, this sentiment faded after it withdrew its support for Hasina. Islam also praises the military for restoring peace and order in the country, expressing hope that the soldiers would return to their cantonment once the police force is re-established.

Placed on the frontlines to defend Hasina’s government during the protests, Bangladesh’s police had clashed with angry civilians in the streets. In many instances, police opened fire, resulting in deaths among the protesters. 

Fearing retaliation from the public after Hasina’s departure, many police officers went into hiding. With few law enforcers willing to do their job, students and other civilians have been trying their best to maintain law and order in many cities and towns across Bangladesh.

Dr. Badiul Alam Majumdar, secretary of the volunteer-based movement SHUJAN, says, “Our police force has become a partisan force. For a long time, there was a rule of one person. With her fall, the entire administrative system collapsed. Many people have fled with her. It is crucial to rebuild and restore our law enforcement agencies to ensure the safety and security of the people and to regain public trust.”

Hasib Al Islam, one of the coordinators of the anti-discrimination student movement at Dhaka University, indicates that the military is seen in better light by the public compared to the police. He believes that while Sheikh Hasina pressured both the military and the police to suppress the student movement, the military “maintained their moral values and professionalism” and in the end “refrained from taking action against the students.”

“From the beginning of our protest, we expected the cooperation of the law enforcement agencies because our movement was justified,” he tells ADC. “But we did not find that support from the police. They instead oppressed us and fired on our brothers, killed them.”

A ‘back-to-the-barracks’ promise

There were also police officers among the fatalities, however. According to the police, some 44 of its officers died in the line of duty during the 36-week student-led protest. Following Hasina’s hasty departure, the South Asian nation also saw several police stations come under attack from angry civilians.

In a press briefing on Aug. 12, though, General Zaman said, “Very soon the situation will be completely normal. When the police force resumes its activities properly, we will return to the cantonment. Over 90 percent of the police stations have started operations till the last report. And in Dhaka, more than 85 percent of the police stations have started their operations. This situation will improve further. The improvement of the law-and-order situation in the country is encouraging.”

Student leader Hasib concedes, “Since Bangladesh’s current administrative system is going through an unstable period, law and order often break down following a revolution or popular uprising, and it takes time to regain stability. As we are still in the process of regaining control, we want the military to assist us until stability is restored.”

But many students who had been part of the protest cannot help but feel excited despite knowing that the interim government has to overcome many hurdles. Dhaka University music major Shima Akhter, for one, is hopeful that once the dust settles, a transparent and fair voting environment will yield a democratic government.

“We don’t want any repeat of what we have seen in Sheikh Hasina’s government,” she says, adding that she has “the same desire that the people of Bengal wanted” when they went into the liberation war of 1971, “ to live as citizens with human dignity and a society without discrimination.”

“The government will have many reforms to implement, which will take time,” comments sociology professor Amanullah. “The longer the government takes to address these issues, the more influence the military will likely have.” ◉