When a win does not seem to be a win

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very election is uncertain, but none has been as uncertain as the 2024 Indian election. Last June 1, India concluded its 18th Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) election. The results were announced three days later. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), emerged victorious, defeating the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) led by the Indian National Congress (Congress).

Narendra Modi has since been sworn in as Prime Minister for the third consecutive term, a remarkable achievement previously accomplished only by India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who served from August 1947 to May 1964.

But the election results surprised many in political circles as they refuted almost all the popular hypotheses championed by various political pundits. In the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP alone won 282 and 303 seats, respectively, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 273 seats in the 543-seat parliament. 

The 2024 election restricted the BJP to a modest 240 seats – 63 seats fewer than the last election. The NDA as a bloc also won 336 seats and 353 seats respectively in 2014 and 2019, giving it a commanding majority in the Lok Sabha. 

Buoyed by their majority in the Lok Sabha and subsequent victories in various state assembly elections, the BJP and NDA also enjoyed near-majority control in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House) for most of the last decade. 

As of April 2024, the BJP had 97 seats in the Rajya Sabha, while the BJP-led NDA had 117 seats – just four short of the majority mark of 121 in the 240-member House. With the majority in the Lok Sabha and nearly a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the ruling party had an unprecedented advantage in passing many controversial laws, such as the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 or the repeal of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.

But the 2024 election results proved to be unkind for Modi and the BJP. They desperately needed at least two NDA partners – the Telegu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh with 16 seats and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar with 12 seats – just to secure 293 seats, or a mere 21 seats over the majority threshold in the parliament.

By comparison, the INDIA bloc won 234 seats – a staggering increase of 115 seats compared to the previous performance. Congress itself secured 99 seats, while its INDIA partners, such as the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh with 37 seats, All India TMC in West Bengal with 29, DMK in Tamil Nadu with 22, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray Group) with nine, and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar Group) with eight, all put up a spectacular performance.

So how then should we interpret the overall outcome of the 2024 election? Does it affirm Modi and his style of politics as the undisputed trend in 21st-century India? Or does it indicate his self-aggrandizement to the extent of his “divine” appearance on the earth and existence since then as trivia? Does it show an acceptance of India as a Hindu majoritarian nation or a rejection of that idea in favor of a secular and pluralistic state and society? Does it suggest a preference for a coalition government that provides better checks and balances on the parliament? 

Perhaps most importantly, does the result signal a reversal of the democratic decline that Indians have been experiencing for the past two decades? 

An uneven playing field

Certain political commentators argue that if there is a true victor in this election, it is the Indian voters themselves, who fearlessly expressed their opinions. Yet it may be too early for Indian voters to celebrate, since they still have to see how those they elected into office perform, and if these supposed servants of the people deliver.

The election was conducted in seven phases over 44 days, amidst unprecedented heat waves in many parts of the country. Unfortunately, at least 40 election officials were killed in the last phase of the election alone, and over a hundred died throughout the entire duration. 

Some political observers have alleged that the Election Commission of India deliberately extended the duration of the election to allow Modi to personally campaign for as many candidates as possible over two and a half months.

Despite these serious allegations, there is hardly any mechanism in place to hold anyone accountable, either politically or administratively, for such unnecessary loss of lives.

The election results, though, sent a clear message to all the country’s political leaders: Personal arrogance has no place in the Indian political landscape. The voters’ preferences also cannot be assumed or taken for granted indefinitely. 

Following the elections, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) head Mohan Bhagwat even suggested, possibly to Prime Minister Modi and other BJP leaders, that they should have exhibited dignity and decorum, which were sorely lacking at times during the campaign. He also hinted at the need for introspection within the BJP leadership, a task that may not come naturally to the current group. 

RSS is considered to be the BJP’s ideological mentor, and it has greatly benefited from advancing its Hindutva agenda over the past two decades, largely due to Modi’s performance. Interestingly, Bhagwat commented on the BJP’s campaign strategies only after the election results, although his remarks accurately captured the ruling party’s pre-poll attitude and conduct.

The entire election campaign had taken place against the backdrop of a series of events reminiscent of an authoritarian and undemocratic regime. Two chief ministers, along with several other ministers from the opposition states, were arrested and imprisoned. Tax authorities froze several bank accounts belonging to the Congress party, just before the campaign period started. 

The Ministry of Home unleashed the Directorate of Enforcement (ED) and the Criminal Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to conduct numerous raids against the political opposition, which seems to be a favorite BJP tactic. 

An investigation by the daily Indian Express has revealed that between 2014 and 2022, 95 percent of the 121 prominent politicians subjected to ED probes, including being booked, raided, questioned, or arrested were opposition leaders. 

But that wasn’t all. Recent changes in the rules governing the appointment of Election Commissioners heavily favored the incumbent political executives, severely undermining the Election Commission’s independent reputation. 

Various judgments by High Courts and lower courts also cast significant doubts on the judiciary’s independence, including the conviction of Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the Congress.

Subsequently, the Lok Sabha Secretariat disqualified his membership in parliament, which the Supreme Court had suspended in July 2023. 

Then there was the introduction of Electoral Bonds in 2018, with its associated anonymity for donors and recipients, which created an atmosphere of opacity surrounding campaign funding.

Although the scheme was annulled by the Supreme Court in February 2024, the BJP has been revealed as its largest beneficiary. 

Yet most troubling of all was the media, particularly the TV channels, surrendering completely to the ruling party’s hegemony, compromising the fourth pillar of democracy. The independence of TV channels swung dramatically with changes in ownership, favoring the BJP in terms of issue coverage and practically becoming a propaganda tool for the ruling party.

Guarantees and fear-mongering

Not surprisingly, India’s 2024 election campaign is now widely regarded as one of the most indecent, unequal, and controversial in the country’s recent history. Prime Minister Modi made this election a personal political project, making grand promises to voters under the banner of “Modi’s Guarantee.” 

In the initial phase of the campaign, he emphasized the successful implementation of various welfare schemes, such as the Swachh Bharat Mission (providing free toilets), Ujjwala (providing free gas connections), Ayushman Bharat (offering health insurance), and Prime Minister Awas Yojana (facilitating affordable housing). 

Of course, the Prime Minister and other key BJP campaigners also took credit for the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the abrogation of Article 370, which pertained to Jammu and Kashmir state. However, in the second phase of the campaign, Modi chose to exploit religious divisions, likening the Congress party’s manifesto to that of the Muslim League and labeling Muslims as “infiltrators” and “those who have more children.” 

During his campaign in Jalore and Banswara in Rajasthan, Modi went so far as to claim that if the Congress came to power, it would seize property, land, and gold from Hindus and tribals and redistribute these to Muslims. 

Such utterances were triggered by the Congress’s manifesto that mentioned the genuine concern of the growing wealth gap and other inequalities. But Modi’s polarizing statements not only lacked dignity and did not befit a prime minister; they also violated the Model Code of Conduct set by the Election Commission. Many were thus bewildered when, in response to the opposition’s complaints, the Election Commission issued show-cause notices to both the BJP and Congress parties, instead of to the prime minister.

To be fair, the opposition had also resorted to a bit of fear-mongering, even as its campaign focused mainly on issues such as unemployment, inflation, unjust tax policies, and misgovernance by the ruling party and its coalition. The Congress manifesto also called for a country-wide caste census to prioritize social justice. 

Yet in response to the BJP’s slogan of “ab ki bar char sau par (this time more than 400 seats),” the opposition suggested that such a majority would be used to reverse the constitutional guarantees provided to Dalit and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). This was mere speculation, but it created fear among Dalit, Adivasis (tribals), and OBCs. Additionally, it instilled fear among Muslims that with such a majority in parliament, the BJP might declare India a Hindu Rashtra (State).

In the end, however, the results seem to have brought happiness to everyone. The BJP is pleased to have maintained its power for a third consecutive term. The NDA alliances are satisfied knowing that the BJP will rely on them in times of need. The Congress and other members of INDIA are content, as their number of seats will grant them influential voices in parliament, and for some, a new lease on life.

As the main opposition party, the Congress may be pleased with the increase in its parliamentary seat tally from 42 in 2019 to 99 in 2024. But it must also reflect on what could have been done better. 

It’s important to remember that while the Congress provided leadership to the INDIA bloc, the regional parties have also performed exceptionally well. The internal divisions within the Congress party in various states are widely known, both in political circles and among Indian voters. The party needs to come together as a united and determined force. 

The INDIA bloc should be seen as a true advocate for social justice, inclusive economic prosperity, a secular and pluralistic society, and the protection of independent democratic institutions. It is crucial for it to move beyond being labeled solely as “anti-Modi” and “anti-BJP” and instead demonstrate a genuine commitment to these values. ◉